The purpose of this blog is to retain an electronic diary/archive of key market moving news and events. The morning note includes my personal views on the financial markets and fundamental research pulled from newswires, Bloomberg, First Call, and other market intelligent websites and blogs. The note helps me prepare for the trading day and helps my PM position the porfolio for upcoming events and catalysts.
Wednesday, August 5, 2009
Blow-of Top in the Banks??
This move in the banks certainly feels like a blow-off top. The price action suggests flat out panic buying in JPM, BAC, and WFC. BAC (16.50) is up 32%, JPM (41.80)is up 11% and WFC (27.30)is up 17% since July 24. JPM is about 25% away from making a new all-time high, which is absurd given the long-term headwinds and structural issues related to the consumer de-leveraging that is still very much underway. Although it is too dangerous to be aggressively short these stocks, I would definitely look to purchase out of the money puts on JPM, WFC, and BAC. Volatility has come down to reasonable levels given the long-term headwinds the sector is still facing. The risk/reward no longer favors the bank bulls.
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