Friday, November 20, 2009

Morning Call: November 20, 2009

November 20, 2009: Morning Call

Fair Value: SP500 – 1093.48; NDX: 1772.72; DOW: 10314.84

Technical Levels:

SPX: 875-880, 910, 953, 986, 1003, 1039-1044 support/ 1110 resistance

5-Day Outlook:
Today: ANN and DHI report earnings.

Next Monday: French, German, and Euro-zone PMI Manufacturing data, US Existing Home Sales.

Next Tuesday: German GDP, US GDP Revision, S&P CaseShiller Home Price Index, US Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

Next Wednesday: UK GDP, US Personal Income/Spending, US Durable Goods, US Initial Jobless Claims, University of Michigan Confidence, US New Home Sales

Next Thursday: Thanksgiving Holiday- Markets Closed.

Notable Earnings: Monday Pre-Market: BJS, CPB, LDK. Monday Post-Market: HPQ, BRCD. Tuesday Pre-market: AEO, HNZ. Tuesday Post-Market: JCG

Detailed Daily Calendar of Events:

Pre-market EPS: ANN (.06/475.9M); DHI (-.25/1.15B); SJM (1.04/1.24B)
10:00: DHI earnings call

Foreign Market Summary/Key Macro News/Commentary:

The S&P futures are trading 9 points below fair value and the NASDAQ futures are trading 13 points below fair value at 7:45am ET. There are a few developments that have contributed to sell-off in the futures market over the last 2 hours. European markets reversed modest gains on the open and are down 1% led by financial and basic material stocks after ECB President Trichet said the ECB would begin to absorb liquidity to ensure price stability and that banks must strengthen their balance sheets. Zhang Ping, chairman of the Chinese National Development and Reform Commission, said at 7am ET that domestic demand growth is not strong enough and that China's economic recovery is not solid. Also, said that China still has an industrial overcapacity problem. Zhang says China's external and domestic situation is complicated. There are also rumors circulating that Ukraine is on the verge of defaulting on their sovereign debt - this Ukraine news story is weighing on the Euro, which is trading down 0.75% against the dollar, right at the short-term uptrend line at 1.48. Gold is trading down 10 to 1134 and other commodities are down 1% to 1.25%. Asian markets closed mostly lower as DELL's disappointing results weighted on technology shares and resource stocks fell on lower commodity prices (Japan down 0.54%-4th down day in a row; Hong Kong down 0.83%, Australia down 1.33%, Shanghai down 0.31%, India up 1.4%). India reversed early declines led by banking and technology shares as traders moved to cover short positions. South Korea was flat as chipmakers weighed on the market. Gainers outnumbered losers in China, but the market still turned down by the end of the day on concerns about the country’s monetary policy.

Research Calls/Market Moving News:

DELL (15.87): Dell reports Q3 EPS $0.23 ex-items vs Reuters $0.28Company reports revenues of $12.90B vs Reuters $13.20B. For Q4, Dell expects seasonal demand improvement in its Consumer business, while demand in Public is typically lower during the quarter. The company expects Q4 revenue to improve over Q3; Reuters consensus is $13.58B. DELL shares are trading down 6.7% in the pre-market.

Fed Makes Monitoring Capital Foremost Concern Amid Bubble Talk- Bloomberg: -- “Federal Reserve officials are stepping up scrutiny of the biggest U.S. banks to ensure the lenders can withstand a reversal of soaring global-asset prices, according to people with knowledge of the matter. Supervisors are examining whether banks such as JPMorgan Chase & Co., Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. have enough capital for the risks they take, how much they know about the strength of their counterparties and whether risk managers have authority to influence bank practices and policies. Lawmakers led by Senator Christopher Dodd have criticized the Fed for failing to prevent a decline in lending standards that contributed to the credit crisis. The central bank’s monitoring takes on renewed urgency as Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s pledge to keep the benchmark interest rate near zero for “an extended period” is helping to fuel a surge in assets. The MSCI AC World stock index is up 71 percent since hitting a recession low on March 9. Gold reached an all-time high of $1,145.50 an ounce Nov. 18. The policy is raising the “systemic risk” of new asset bubbles, Bill Gross, who runs the world’s largest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., said in a note posted on the Newport Beach, California-based company’s Web site yesterday. Finance officials in Asia say a bubble fueled by the Fed’s low rates has already arrived.”

RIMM (58.84): Research In Motion downgraded to neutral from buy at FTN Equity :Firm notes a decline in market share due to greater than expected competitive pressure.

GPS (21.84): Gap reports Q3 EPS $0.44 vs guidance $0.42-0.44 vs Reuters $0.44: Company previously reported revenues of $3.59B. Gross margin increased 380 basis points to 42.5%; operating margin increased to 13.9% compared with 11.1% last year. inventory per square foot was down 9% y/y. GPS shares are trading up 1.6%.

Treasury announces plans to sell warrants from JPM, COF, TCB in modified Dutch auctions: The auctions will be held during the next month. The warrants were obtained from the companies as part of the TARP program.

Dallas Fed President Fisher comments on too big to fail problem - wires: Fisher says that it is unrealistic to expect the government not to help systemically important firms get "out of the fire". But Fisher added that banks that are considered too big to fail might need to divest some businesses such as proprietary trading.

GS (172.83): Some of Goldman Sachs' largest investors say more profits should go to shareholders reports the WSJ: Sources familiar with the situation say that some of the firm's largest shareholders are saying the firm should reduce its bonus pool and pass along more of the earnings to shareholders. Shareholders point to expectations that the record net income and compensation that will result in EPS about 22% lower than '07 because of the 100M shares issued in the past year as the bank sought to bolster its financial position and capital. The shareholders say reigning in the bonus pool would give a boost to EPS and the share price. Some investors point to the change in the financials that now includes consultants and temp workers in the total worker count so that total pay per worker appears lower.

Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Morning Call: November 18, 2009

November 18, 2009: Morning Call

Fair Value: SP500 – 1108.72; NDX: 1811.79; DOW: 10416.35

Technical Levels:

SPX: 875-880, 910, 953, 986, 1003, 1039-1044 support/ 1110 resistance

5-Day Outlook:
Today: BOE Meeting Minutes, Euro-zone Construction Output, US CPI, US Housing Starts.

Thursday: UK Retail Sales, US Initial Jobless Claims, US Leading Indicators, US Philly Fed.

Friday: ANN and DHI report earnings.

Next Monday: French, German, and Euro-zone PMI Manufacturing data, US Existing Home Sales.

Next Tuesday: German GDP, US GDP Revision, S&P CaseShiller Home Price Index, US Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

Notable Earnings: Tuesday Pre-market: HD, TGT. Tuesday Post-Close: CRM, ADSK. Wednesday Pre-Market: BJ, CHS, SLF. Wednesday Post-Close: NTES, LTD. Thursday Pre-market: STP, SHLD, TSL. Thursday Post-Close: DELL. Friday Pre-market: ANN, DHI

Detailed Daily Calendar of Events:

Pre-market EPS: BJ (.45/2.48B); CHS (.06/414.7M); SOLF (.15/148.3M)
08:30: US Consumer Price Index (Oct): 0.2% MoM; Ex-Food/Energy: 0.1%
08:30: US Consumer Price Index (Oct): -0.3% MoM; Ex-Food/Energy: 1.6% YoY
08:30: US Housing Starts (Oct): 598,000; Building Permits: 580,000
09:00: PHM presents at UBS Building Conference
09:15: Fed’s Bullard speaks on the economy
10:30: DOE Crude Oil and Gasoline Inventories
10:40: DVN presents at Bank of America Energy Conference
11:25: ECA presents at Bank of America Energy Conference
14:00: MSFT Analyst and Investor Meeting
15:15: HGSI presents at Lazard Capital Healthcare Conference
Post-market EPS: DCI (.34/408.7M); HOTT (.13/191.9M); JACK (.55/548.6M); LTD(-.02/1.78B); NTAP (.30/881.6M); NTES (.50/140.0M); PETM (.28/1.29B)

Foreign Market Summary/Key Macro News/Commentary:

The S&P futures are trading flat with fair value and the NASDAQ futures are trading 2 points above fair value at 7:30am ET. The Euro bounced off the uptrend line in Tuesday’s session and is trading up 0.60% against the dollar, nearing the 1.50 level once again. European markets are up 0.30% to 0.70%, as basic resource, autos, and technology stocks advance. Markets rallied from unchanged at 5:45am ET after Lloyds (unch’d), ING (+1.2%) & KBC (suspended) gained EU approval for their restructuring plans. The knee jerk higher represents relief that any uncertainty has been removed over the approval, while KBC remains suspended as we gather more detail on its disposals. Sterling dropped in early trade after the BoE mins showed one MPC member voted for and increase in QE of £40bn, whilst all but one other voted for +£25bn. The committee will reassess proceedings in Feb’10. Cadburys benefit from Hershey saying they are reviewing their options regarding the co in response to Kraft’s bid. Copper hit a 14 month high as the dollar declined, with other precious & base metals advancing. ITV +5.5% appointed a new chairman, and Wolseley drop 3.6% as profits slump. Asian markets closed mixed in a tranquil trading session (Japan down 0.55%, Hong Kong down 0.32%, Australia up 0.20%, Shanghai up 0.05%, India down 0.30%) South Korea outperformed up 1.25%. Brokerages outperformed in South Korea. Chipmakers gained on a broker report that PCs and Windows 7 will remain robust through next year. Utilities performed well in China on expectations they will see a huge increase in demand over the winter and aided by a broker upgrade of Shanghai Electric (601727.CH). Solar energy stocks rallied in Taiwan on a report that they won orders from a Chinese trade delegation. Most miners rose again in Australia, and banks were mixed. HSBC (5.HK) fell in Hong Kong after saying new capital rules may reduce credit in the economy. Weakness in real estate and financial stocks pushed Japan to reverse an early rise.

Research Calls/Market Moving News:

BAC (15.77): Paulson & Co., the hedge fund firm run by billionaire John Paulson, expects Bank of America Corp.’s stock to almost double in the next two years as writedowns abate, according to a letter sent to investors. The bank, ranked first by assets and deposits in the U.S., may rise to $29.81 by the end of December 2011, Paulson said in a quarterly letter sent to investors. Paulson expects “banks will have passed the current writedown cycle and have visibility for growth in 2012,” the letter said.

MON (77.33): Cramer Positive on Ag Sector: Featured Positive: Cramer says that agriculture is the next sector that's ready to break out to the upside, noting that the Department of Agriculture raised its spot price forecast last week citing production shortfalls. Cramer is positive on MON, POT, AGU, MOS, TNH and DE.

MON (77.33): UBS says Monsanto maintains corn yield lead: Firm's analysis of Univ of Illinois field trials indicates that MON has maintained its corn yield advantage over Pioneer in the number two corn growing state. UBS believes that a growing yield advantage plus the refuge-reduction advantages of SmartStax over Pioneer's AcreMax are likely to result in renewed MON corn share gains in 2010

CRM (65.61): reports Q3 EPS $0.16 vs Reuters $0.16: Company reports revenues of $330.5M vs Reuters $324.4M. Guides Q4 EPS to $0.14-0.15 vs Reuters $0.15; guides revenues to $340-342M vs Reuters $334.7M. Initial fiscal 2011 revenue outlook is for growth of +15-16%.

CRM (65.61): target increased to $72 from $66 at ISI Group: Analyst Heather Bellini sees company guidance as conservative and believes if the economy continues to improve, the company will beat f11 revenue guidance. The buy rating is reiterated

RIMM (61.40): Research In Motion downgraded to market perform from outperform at BMO Capital: “We are lowering estimates, price target, and our rating to MARKET PERFORM from OUTPERFORM. While we believe the November quarter is tracking to plan, we have a number of concerns that could impact FY2011 earnings and we see a number of other overhangs for the stock. We are modeling share loss at RIM's largest customer, we think the move into the mid-tier will hurt the operating model, and cash flow needs to improve. We are less concerned about a CDMA iPhone, monthly ARPU going away, and RIM's operating system and browser, but we think each represents an overhang on the stock. We don't believe that the success of the Bold 2 and new international markets will be enough to stimulate the shares.”

AAPL (207.00): China Mobile chairman says company is still in talks with Apple (AAPL) about iPhone for China – wires:

BIDU (441.50): Baidu removed from the Conviction Buy List at Goldman Sachs: Buy rating retained. Target increased to $500 from $435.

CBY (54.00); HSY (38.41); KFT (27.64): Hershey (HSY) confirms that it is considering a potential bid for Cadbury: Hershey confirms that it is reviewing its options and at this stage there can be no assurance that any proposal or offer from Hershey will be forthcoming. A further announcement will be made in due course if appropriate. Ferrero confirms it is in the preliminary stages of evaluating its options with respect to Cadbury

FSLR (123.99): First Solar mentioned positively at RBC, recommends purchase into the 16-Dec guidance call: The firm recently met with the company's IR team in Texas and recommends purchase of the stock into the company's 16-Dec 2010 guidance conference call. RBC believes new plant details will be more important than 2010 ASP and margin erosion expectations, which are already baked into shares. FSLR remains sector perform rated with a $136 target.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

November 10, 2009: Morning Call

November 10, 2009: Morning Call

Fair Value: SP500 – 1090.92; NDX: 1766.35; DOW: 10193.82

Technical Levels:

SPX: 875-880, 910, 953, 986, 1003, 1039-1044 support/1081, 1110 resistance

5-Day Outlook:

Today: Bank of America Financial Conference – GS, BAC, STT, COF, AXP, MS, BK among the companies presenting. RW Baird Industrial Conference (ETN, PH, CAT, SWK, ITW among the companies presenting. MON analyst day. 3 Fed officials (Lockhart, Yellon, Rosengren) speak on the US economic outlook. Tuesday night: Chinese Economic Data releases: PPI, CPI, Retail Sales, Industrial Production.

Wednesday: UK Unemployment, Bank of America Banking Conference, TOL Q4 Guidance at 2pm ET.

Thursday: Euro-zone Industrial Production, WMT earnings, Initial Jobless Claims,

Friday: Euro-zone GDP, US Trade Balance, University of Michigan Confidence, Fed’s Evans speaks on asset-price bubbles.

Monday: Euro-zone CPI, US Retail Sales, Empire Manufacturing, Business Inventories

Notable Earnings: Tuesday Pre-market: BZH. Tuesday Post-Close: AONE. Wednesday Pre-market: M. Wednesday Post-Close: AMAT. Thursday Pre-market: WMT, KSS, ECA. Thursday Post-Close: JWN, DIS. Friday Pre-market: ANF, A, JCP. Monday Pre-Market: LOW

Detailed Daily Calendar of Events:

Pre-market EPS: ARM (-.31/1.0B); BZH (-1.24/338M); JASO (.03/136M); TYC(.54/4.3B)
02:00: AEM presents at Thomas Weisel Conference
05:00: Euro-zone ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey (Nov): 58 (weaker at 51.8)
08:00: BAC presents at Bank of America banking conference
08:50: GS presents at Bank of America banking conference
09:15: Fed’s Lockhart to speak on the US Economic Outlook
10:00: Fed’s Yellon speaks on the US Economic Outlook
10:30: COF presents at Bank of America banking conference
11:15: Fed’s Rosengren speaks on the US economy
12:10: AXP presents at Bank of America banking conference
13:30: FSYS presents at Thomas Weisel conference
13:45: MS presents at Bank of America banking conference
14:30: MON Investor Meeting
14:35: BK presents at Bank of America banking conference
14:55: CAT presents at Robert Baird Conference
16:15: NYX presents at Bank of America banking conference
16:30: API Crude Oil and Gasoline Inventories
16:30: TSO Analyst and Investor Conference
17:00: ABC Consumer Confidence
19:30: Fed’s Fisher speaks on the US economic outlook
21:00: Chinese Producer Price Index (Oct): -5.2% YoY
21:00: Chinese Consumer Price Index (Oct): -0.4% YoY
21:00: Chinese Retail Sales (Oct): 15.7% YoY
21:00: Chinese Industrial Production (Oct): 15.2% YoY
Post-market EPS: AONE (-.36/19.2M); PAAS (.21/116M); WTW (.64/318M)

Foreign Market Summary/Key Macro News/Commentary:

The S&P futures are trading 2 below fair value and the NASDAQ futures are trading 4 below fair value in very light overnight trading. European markets are flat after fluctuating on either side of unchanged for the early morning session. Earnings met with a mixed response as HSBC (HSBA.LN), Schroders (SDR.LN) and Imperial Tobacco (IMT.LN) rising whilst Barclays (BARC.LN), Trygvesta (TRYG.DC) and Vodafone (VOD.LN) fell. Euro-zone and German sentiment surveys came in weaker than expected, as did the French Industrial production number. Asian markets closed higher but many weakened into the close (India moved down 200 points from the opening session highs). A weaker US dollar pushed commodities prices and their associated stocks higher. Axa Asia Pacific (AXA.AU) rose again in the wake of rejecting a takeover bid yesterday and AMP (AMP.AU) rose on speculation it might become a takeover target. Trading firms rose in Japan with banks also up after the banking minister suggested the country might not strictly enforce capital requirements.

Research Calls/Market Moving News:

PCLN (173.73): reports Q3 pro-forma EPS $3.45 vs Reuters $2.92:
Company reports revenues of $730.7M vs Reuters $699.9M. reports Q3 gross bookings $2.72B vs StreetAccount consensus $2.56B: Represents y/y growth of +32.8% vs guidance for +20-26%. Q4 guidance: Gross bookings growth +30-40% vs SA +32%. International +50-60% vs SA +39% (local currency +37-46%). Domestic +15% vs SA +21%. PCLN shares are up 7%.

AIG (36.18): American International Group may be able to pay back Fed loan, says Moody's: Moody's says that AIG will be able to repay its credit line from the Federal reserve and "much or all" of Treasury's investment should financial markets stabilize. AIG shares are up 7.5%.

HMIN (32.89): HMIN Q3 profit .40 cents vs. street at .24 cents. Sales of 106 million exceeded consensus of 94.7 million. Guides revenues to between 98.9-101.8 million. Street at 89.4 million. Shares are indicated up 11% on tiny volume.

HBC (58.30): HBC up 4.5% after the company releases their Q3 interim management statement: Profitability for the first nine months of 2009 was stronger than expectations at the start of the year, as positive trends experienced in H1 continued into Q3. Year to date pre-tax profit was ahead of the comparable period in 2008 on an underlying basis, excluding movements in fair value on the company's own debt related to credit spreads. In the US consumer finance run-off portfolio, loan impairment allowances declined in the quarter.

BCS (23.17): BCS is trading down 3.5% following its Q3 interim management statement. The company reports it has maintained strong income momentum in Q3, particularly in Barclays Capital and across the international activities of GRCB, enabling the company to achieve consistent profitability across the first three quarters of 2009. Guides impairment for the full year currently expected to be around the bottom end of the previously referenced 2009 consensus range of £9.0-9.6B.

JASO (4.12): JA Solar reports Q3 EPADS $0.10 unclear if comparable to Reuters Reuters $0.03: Company reports revenues of $193.0M vs Reuters $137.2M. Q3 shipments: 177MW. Gross margin: 16.7% vs 11.4% seq. Mgmt expects Q4 shipments of 170-200MW. JASO shares are up 4.5%.

FLR (48.01): Fluor (FLR) reports Q3 EPS $0.89 vs Reuters $0.90, guides FY EPS to $3.75-3.90 vs prior $3.80-4.10 and Reuters $3.86. FLR is trading down 6%.

AAPL (201.46); GOOG (562.51): WSJ looks at the cooperation between Google and Verizon Wireless to take on the iPhone: Before the Droid, neither company had worked closely with the other before but now there is a growing friendship between the CEOs of the 2 companies. The largest marketing campaign in Verizon Wireless's history is backing the Droid. Argues that the deal that created the Droid was essentially the result of the growing friendship between the CEOs and that things like Verizon Wireless going with Microsoft for its phone search did not derail the deal because of the friendship.

ENER (10.93): Energy Conversion downgraded to sell from hold at Citi: Target cut to $7 from $12

WYNN (63.54); LVS (16.79): Water rationing may begin in Macau this weekend - London Times: Casino operators have not been told what to do. A drought has exacerbated what the article terms "years of mismanagement" at reservoirs that Macau relies on just across the Chinese border in Zhuhai.

Thursday, November 5, 2009

November 5, 2009: Morning Call

Fair Value: SP500 – 1043.70; NDX: 1679.44; DOW: 9758.71

Technical Levels:

SPX: 875-880, 910, 953, 986, 1003, 1039-1044 support/1066, 1110 resistance

5-Day Outlook:

Today: Jobless Claims, Productivity, October Same Store comps
Friday: Change in US Payrolls (-175k), Unemployment Rate: 9.9%. Consumer Credit
Next Week: Multiple Fed speakers address the economic outlook, Chinese Retail Sales and Industrial Production.

Notable Earnings: Thursday Post-close: EOG, PSA, CROX, SUN. Friday Pre-market: AIG. Monday Pre-market: DISH, WCRX. Monday Post-Close: FLR. Tuesday Pre-market: BZH, JASO. Tuesday Post-Close: AONE

Key Macro Trends: Will the highly accommodative/dovish Fed statement reinforce the “risk/reflation trade?” Or will investors “sell the news” and take profits in the near-term given the substantial relative outperformance vs. the S&P 500? Key proxies are Crude Oil, Gold, Euro, high beta technology/commodity stocks, and commodity currencies (Real, Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar). Financial sector underperformance is another important trend. Fears about government intervention and persistently high credit costs are weighing on the sector, particularly the weaker balance sheet companies. M&A and other corporate actions: Is the BRK for BNI a one-off blockbuster deal or does this signal more mega-deals? RIMM announces a 1.2 billion dollar share buyback this morning. CSCO added 10 billion dollars to its share repurchase authorization last night. Key Short term resistance stands at 1060. Short-term support stands at 1039-1044. Intermediate/Long-term support at 998-1003. Resistance at 1098-1103.

Daily Calendar of Events:

Pre-market EPS: ALD (.07/79M); CAH (.42/24.04B); CI (1.03/4.64B); CNQ(1.23/2.51B); CVS (.64/24.57B); DTV (.40/5.42B); FSYS (.42/104.3M); HOC(.45/1.48B); KIM (.31/194.2M); NDAQ (.42/653.8M); OCR (.60/1.55B); SLE(.15/3.17B); TRI (.40/3.26B)
05:00: Euro-zone Retail Sales (Sep): 0.4% MoM; -2.1% YoY
07:00: Bank of England Announces Interest Rate Decision
07:00: Select Retailers release October Same Store Sales
07:45: ECB Announces Interest Rate Decision
08:00: GE presents at Goldman Sachs Industrials Conference
08:30: US Productivity (Q3): 6.0%; Unit Labor Costs: -3.5%
08:30: Initial Jobless Claims: 519,000; Cont. Claims: 5.8 million
10:00: CNO earnings call
10:00: JPM presents at BancAnalysts Association of Boston
10:30: EIA Natural Gas Storage Change
11:00: ICSC Chain Store Sales
18:00: G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bankers meet in Scotland
Post-market EPS: CBS (.23/3.18B); CHH (.52/168.6M); CROX (-0.08/156.4M); CSTR(.59/326.3M); EOG (.66/1.11B); NVDA (.10/834.1M); PSA (1.25/370.7M); SBUX(.21/2.39B); SUN (.03/7.83B); VRSN (.32/258.8M);

Foreign Market Summary/Key Macro News/Commentary:

The S&P futures are trading 4 points above fair value and the NASDAQ futures are trading 8 points above fair value at 8:00am ET. Asian markets fell led by consumer companies and banks (Japan down 1.3%, Hong Kong down 0.63%, South Korea down 1.7%, Shanghai up 0.30%, India up 0.95%). South Korea said it was unlikely that the economic recovery will be sustained. India reversed early losses on a report saying the government may lower telecom license fees. China fluctuated before ending higher with transportation stocks up after China Eastern (600115.CH) got approval for a share sale, and commodity producers fell on speculation stimulus measures may be withdrawn. Hong Kong saw profit taking. New Zealand reported its highest quarterly unemployment rate in nine years. Retailers fell in Australia after David Jones (DJS.AU) reported Q1 sales growth that missed forecasts. European markets are down 0.35% but have pared opening losses of nearly 1%. Decliners on the FTSE 100 lead advancers 7-3. Technology and basic material stocks are lagging.

Research Calls/Market Moving News:

RIMM (57.61): Research In Motion announces common share repurchase program: RIMM announced that its board has authorized a share repurchase program to purchase for common shares having an aggregate purchase price of up to $ 1.2B, or approximately 21M common shares based on current trading prices (representing approximately 3.6% of the currently outstanding common shares of RIM). The share repurchase program may commence on 9-Nov and will remain in place for up to 12 months or until the purchases are completed or the program is terminated by RIM. RIM has not repurchased any shares within the past twelve months.

CSCO (23.29): Cisco Systems reports Q1 EPS $0.36 ex-items vs Reuters $0.31: Company reports revenues of $9.02B vs Reuters $8.75B. Cisco Systems increases share repurchase program by $10B. stock. Cisco's board had previously authorized up to $62B in stock repurchases. There is no fixed termination date for the repurchase program. The remaining authorized amount for stock repurchases under this program, including the additional authorization, is approximately $13.1B. Cisco Systems guides Q2 (Jan) revenue to be up 1-4% y/y - conf. call: Implies a range of $9.18-9.45B vs Reuters $8.98B.

GS (169.50): Goldman Sachs has benefited more than most from low interest rates says the WSJ: A 'Heard on the Street' column notes that Goldman's interest rate on its long term borrowings was only 0.92% in Q3 compared to 3.53% a year ago. This is lower than many competitors but costs may be computed differently. Most of the Street uses interest-rate derivatives to effectively convert long term debt to floating rate. If the Fed keeps rates low for as long as it says, this advantage should accrue to Goldman's benefit for some time to come.

RIMM (57.61): Research In Motion is the company at risk from the Droid says the WSJ: A 'Heard on the Street' column says that the Motorola Droid from Verizon Wireless appears to be a strong competitor to the iPhone but the real loser in this fight might be RIMM and its BlackBerry phones. As long as the iPhone was the only phone with a good web browser, the BlackBerry's lack of a solid web experience was not an issue. But now there are several phones offering a robust browsing experience including the Palm Pre and the Droid. RIMM could see some defections in coming months with consumers now representing the majority of new subscribers and satisfaction with BlackBerry's dropping among both consumers and IT departments. Even if it turns things around, margins have been dropping as devices become more complex and the increased competition may lead to price competition. Even after the recent selloff, the shares may still be pricey.

COST (58.81): Costco reports Oct comps +5% vs StreetAccount +4.2: Company reports October net revenues +7% to $5.68B. US comps were +2%; international comps +17%. US comps (excluding the impact from gasoline deflation) were +3%; international (excluding the effects of foreign exchange) +7%; total comps (excluding aforementioned effects) +4%.

FSYS (33.80): Fuel Systems Solutions reports Q3 EPS $0.77 ex-$0.11 gain vs Reuters $0.43: Shares are up 10% in the pre-market. Company reports revenues of $116.2M vs Reuters $104.3M. Gross profit for Q3 2009 was $39.4M, or 34% of revenue, compared to $30.7M, or 29% of revenue a year ago, reflecting increased operating efficiencies. Operating income for the period totaled $23.1M, or 20% of revenue, compared to $18.2M, or 17% of revenue, in Q3 of 2008. Guides full year revenues to $415-425M vs Reuters $379.7M. The company is targeting 2009 gross margin between 30% and 32% and 2009 operating margin to be between 14% and 16%.

GG (39.88): Goldcorp reports Q3 adj. EPS $0.19 vs Reuters $0.16; increases full-year production guidance: Company reports revenues of $691.9M vs Reuters $614.5M . Q3 gold production was 621,100 ounces, +11% y/y. Total cash cost was $295 was $295 an ounce on a by-product basis and $297 per ounce year to date. Total cash costs on a co-product basis were $384 an ounce compared to $380 an ounce year to date. Company increases F09 gold production guidance to ~2.4M ounces from 2.3M ounces. Adds that guidance on total cash costs has also changed in light of its stronger operating performance. Total cash costs for 2009 are now expected to be ~$300 per ounce on a by-product basis compared with previous guidance of $365 per ounce. On a co-product basis, total cash costs are now expected to be less than $400 per ounce compared to previous guidance of $400 per ounce.

CF (86.38): Agrium (AGU) makes "best and final offer" for CF Industries Holdings of $45/share in cash plus 1 share AGU: The cash and stock offer totals $92.99 at yesterday's AGU close of $47.99. The offer was consistent with the report form the WSJ this morning. Also as noted by the WSJ, AGU said that it has received a "No-Action" letter from Canadian Competition Bureau and has re-filed notification under Hart-Scott-Rodino. AGU has extended the expiration of the offer to midnight on 18-Nov. CF is trading down 6 points as AGU appears willing to walk on November 18 if CF does not come to the table.

Wednesday, November 4, 2009

November 4, 2009: Morning Call

November 4, 2009: Morning Call

Fair Value: SP500 – 1042.50; NDX: 1677.99; DOW: 9728.58

Technical Levels:

SPX: 875-880, 910, 953, 986, 1003, 1039-1044 support/1066, 1110 resistance


Pre-market EPS: ADP (.50/2.05B); BDX (1.25/1.84B); BHI (.35/2.23B); CMCSA(.25/8.83B); DVN (.89/2.01B); FWLT (.66/1.29B); GRMN (.69/706.6M); MMC(.27/2.59B); PHM (-.61/1.1B); RDN (-1.25/263.4M); RIG (2.63/2.83B); TWX(.53/7.11B)
04:00: Euro-zone PMI Services (Oct): 52.3; Composite: 53.0
05:00: Euro-zone PPI (Sep): -0.4% MoM; -7.7% YoY
07:00: MBA Mortgage Applications
08:15: ADP Employment Change (October): -190,000
08:30: PHM earnings call
08:45: JOYG presents at Goldman Sachs Industrials Conference
09:00: Treasury Announces Quarterly Refunding
09:30: PCAR presents at Goldman Sachs Industrials Conference
10:00: RIG earnings call
10:00: FWLT presents at Goldman Sachs Industrials Conference
10:30: GRMN earnings call
10:30: DOE Crude Oil and Gasoline Inventories
13:30: BNI presents at Goldman Sachs Industrials Conference
14:15: FOMC Rate Decision: 0.25%
14:15: CSX presents at Goldman Sachs Industrials Conference
15:00: UNP presents at Goldman Sachs Industrials Conference
16:00: KLAC Annual Meeting
16:30: CSCO earnings call
17:00: Select Retailers release October Same Store Sales
Post-market EPS: ALL (1.01/6.51B); CSCO (.30/8.74B); CNO (.22/1.12B); MUR(.97/4.74B); NWS (.18/7.15B); PRU (1.34/6.66B); QCOM (.52/2.72B); WFMI(.18/1.84B)

Foreign Market Summary/Key Macro News/Commentary:

The S&P futures are trading 5 points above fair value and the NASDAQ futures are trading 2 points above fair value at 7:45am ET. The ADP Employment Change and the FOMC statement will be a key focus today. European markets are up 0.70% to 1.4% led by a 5% gain in Marks and Spencer (MKS LN) after the company’s earnings exceeded expectations. Basic material stocks are also stronger in Europe led by continued momentum in gold. The US dollar is slightly lower on expectations that the Fed will repeat the key phrase in the policy statement that rates will say on hold for an “extended period.” France and Germany Oct Final Services PMI were revised below prelim readings at 57.7 and 50.7 respectively, whilst Eurozone Oct Final Services PMI 52.6 topped prelim estimate. UK Oct Services PMI 56.9 vs con 55.5. Eurozone Sep PPI (7.7%) y/y vs con (7.7%). Advancers on the FTSE 100 lead decliners 4-1. Asian markets closed higher led by India, which reversed 3.3% higher, snapping a 6-day losing streak. India’s finance minister said the government would maintain the stimulus measures propelling basic material and energy stocks 4.5% to 9% higher. Financials led South Korea higher following strong earnings reports. Hong Kong rebounded on bargain hunting with property developers and commodity stocks leading the way. Westpac Bank (WBC.AU) led banks up in Australia after releasing FY results. Property shares fell on a report that banks have tightened their mortgage lending on expectations Beijing may raise interest rates. Australia Sep retail sales (0.2%) m/m vs survey +0.5%.

Research Calls/Market Moving News:

WFC (27.74): Wells Fargo bets on a recovery when helping mortgage holders reports the WSJ: The bank has about $107B in debt tied to option adjustable rate mortgages. Many borrowers own homes worth less than the balances and can't afford to pay an amount that would reduce their loan principal. In response, the bank is gambling on a recovery by issuing thousands of interest only loans that defer borrowers' balances for as long as 6-19 years. It is wagering that a housing recovery and consumer income recovery will eventually cover their underwater debt. As a result, the bank is avoiding large write-downs from foreclosures but it holds billions in debt tied to distressed properties in battered markets.

MA (219.20): MasterCard target increased to $275 from $240 at Deutsche Bank: The firm recommends purchase on the weakness following Q3 earnings, which it attributes to the relative lack of visibility into 2010. F10 estimates are increased to $13.80 and $5.51B; Reuters is $13.12 and $5.55B, respectively. The rating remains buy.

GRMN (31.41): Garmin reports Q3 EPS $1.02 ex-items vs Reuters $0.69; Company reports revenues of $781.3M vs Reuters $706.6M. Net sales: Auto/Mobile $546M vs StreetAccount consensus $489M Outdoor/Fitness $132M vs SA $113M. Aviation $58M vs SA $62M. Marine $45M vs SA $42M. GRMN is trading up 5.6% in the pre-market.

STEC (23.15): STEC reports Q3 EPS $0.50 ex-items vs Reuters $0.47: Company reports revenues of $98.3M vs Reuters $94.1M; reports non-GAAP gross profit margin of 49.8% vs 34.1% y/y. Guides Q4 EPS to $0.51-0.53 ex-items vs Reuters $0.52; guides revenues to $101-103M vs Reuters $106.0M. Shares are down 30%.

STEC (23.15): Think Equity downgrades STEC to hold from buy. “STEC reported September-quarter results ahead of the Street. But, revenue guidance for F4Q09(Dec) at $102M is below the consensus of $106M. STEC attributed weak guidance to Zeus Inventory at EMC. Also, STEC said it will probably take through 1Q10 to clear out inventory. We believe new competing solutions in 1Q/1H10 could make ZeusIOPs a tougher sell, with solutions at SAS, PCIe from Seagate, Micron, SMOD, Pliant, FusionIO, Samsung, and Intel and alternative solutions from the storage OEMs Sun, NetApp. We got this one wrong, and lower our rating from Buy to Hold. STEC guiding December quarter to $101-103M versus consensus of $106M. Company saying weaker guidance due to inventory of ZeusIOPS storage solutions at EMC as it has not been able to sell through all the solutions. STEC saying the slower sell through on the ZeusIOPS has been due to customer perception of a longer payback period on the more expensive SSD investment. STEC is therefore setting up a sales team to jointly market the SSD solutions with EMC and other storage OEMs to potential customers. We believe 1) the fact that the ZeusIOPs SSD has not been able to sell through on its lower cost of ownership merits could imply more pricing pressure on the Zeus solutions, which combined with higher marketing expense make for a less profitable enterprise opportunity. 2) STEC also saying could take through 1Q10 to clear out the ZeusIOPs SSD at EMC, which could enable the competition to close the technology gap. 3) By 1Q/1H10, we believe there would be multiple solutions in the market from Seagate, Micron, SMOD, Intel, Pliant, FusionIO and Samsung for both the Server and storage markets in SAS and PCIe to compete with ZeusIOPS FC SSDs. 4) We believe the competitive offerings could imply market share and pricing risk for STEC, also 5) other Storage OEMs not as keen on SSDs. Given the increasing competitive pressures and risk of pricing, market share, inventory risk, continuous pressures on lowering cost of ownership from competing solutions the risk to the downside.”

RIG (85.91): Transocean reports Q3 EPS $2.65 ex-items vs Reuters $2.65: First Call is $2.67. Company reports revenues of $2.82B vs Reuters $2.84B. Total drilling fleet dayrate $283,800 vs. $255,900 seq. and $242,200 y/y Total drilling fleet utilization 75% vs. 84% seq. and 89% y/y.

WYNN (56.13); LVS (15.14): Macau casino revenue rises 42% y/y in October to MOP12.6B ($1.58B), says Macao Daily News – Bloomberg: The paper cites the news agency Lusa.

BAC (14.80): Bernstein comments on Bank of America, continues to rate the shares outperform: The firm believes the market's fear of an imminent capital raise ahead of an announcement regarding the CEO position is premature and notes most reasonable capital raise scenarios are not EPS dilutive given the extinguishing of TARP dividends.

Tuesday, November 3, 2009

November 3, 2009: Morning Call

November 3, 2009: Morning Call

Fair Value: SP500 – 1039.69; NDX: 1671.43; DOW: 9740.68

Technical Levels:

SPX: 875-880, 910, 953, 986, 1003, 1039-1044 support/1066, 1110 resistance


Pre-market EPS: ABC (.40/17.85B); ANR (.35/756.2M); ADM (.55/16.96B); AMT (.17/430.9M); CTSH(.41/805.6M); EMR (.60/5.29B); ENR (1.16/1.06B); ICE (1.14/255.6M); MA(2.92/1.34B); MRO (.57/13.24B); MLM (1.20/483.6M); VIA (.56/3.28B); VNO(1.14/604.1M); UBS (.18/6.5B)
09:00: MA earnings call
10:00: US Factory Orders (Sep): 1.0%
13:00: Domestic Vehicle Sales (Oct): F, GM should release sales stats
15:00: UBS earnings call
16:30: API Crude Oil and Gasoline Inventories
Post-market EPS: CNW (.53/1.14B); DVA (.99/1.53B); HIG (1.15/6.13B); KFT(.48/10.3B); STEC (.47/96.7M)

Foreign Market Summary/Key Macro News/Commentary:

The S&P futures are trading 8 points below fair value and the NASDAQ futures are trading 12 points below fair value at 8am ET. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway announces a blockbuster $34 billion dollar offer for BNI. I find it surprising that the S&P futures have only moved 3 points higher since the Berkshire for Burlington transaction news was announced. I would have predicted a much sharper gain given the size of the transaction and signal of confidence from Buffett. The muted reaction is the result of weakness in European markets, which are down 2% following poor earnings from UBS (down 7%). The Euro and British pound are under pressure following news that RBS and Lloyds will receive 31.3 billion pounds in a second bailout from the UK government. There is a building narrative in the market that global financial stocks will face serious headwinds in the form of government orders and or legislation; this storyline is particularly strong in Europe, where the government has forced asset sales and have taken a much harder line on compensation practices than in the US. Asian markets closed lower with India the weakest major market in the region (Japan closed, India down 3.1%, Shanghai up 1.2%, Hong Kong down 1.8%). India fell on disappointing earnings from Hindalco and Reliance Communications. Hindalco, India’s largest aluminum company, fell 11% and Reliance Communications, India’s second largest mobile phone operator, fell 5.7%. China rose in active trade as growth in bank lending raised expectations of sustained economic growth. Gold stocks rose in Australia, but banks fell as the central bank raised interest rates for the second time in a month. Banks in Indonesia were hurt when the IMF said it expects the economy to grow at a lower rate in 2010 than the government had targeted. IMF raised its 2009 and 2010 forecasts for Hong Kong.

Research Calls/Market Moving News:

BNI (76.70): Berkshire Hathaway agrees to acquire Burlington Northern for $100/share in cash and stock: The boards of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) and Burlington Northern Santa Fe announced a definitive agreement for Berkshire Hathaway to acquire for $100 per share in cash and stock the remaining 77.4% of outstanding BNI shares not currently owned. Based on the number of outstanding BNI shares, the transaction is valued at approximately $44B, including $10B of outstanding BNSF debt.

UBS (16.78): UBS reports Q3 EPS (CHF 564M) vs Bloomberg (CHF 345.0M) and year-ago CHF283M: Results include charges totaling CHF 2,150M. Company reports operating income of CHF5.77B vs year-ago CHF5.54B.

MA (222.65): MasterCard reports Q3 EPS $3.48 ex-items vs Reuters $2.93: First Call is $2.94. Company reports revenues of $1.36B vs Reuters $1.35B.

Federal reserve regulators want banks to begin to overhaul compensation before rules are finalized reports the WSJ: The Federal Reserve has informed top bankers that they should start to overhaul employee compensation as soon as possible, even before the Federal Reserve finishes the proposed rules on compensation. Executives at the top 28 domestic and foreign banks were told to turn over by 1-Feb a list of the changes they will make to align their compensation practices with the Fed's rules. The rules will be finalized by year's end. The Federal Reserve wants the banks to consider the rules when they decide on 2009 bonuses. Several Federal Reserve branches held talks with bank officials from their areas.

AAPL (189.31): Apple wants TV networks to join it in iTunes service to let subscribers download unlimited TV shows for $30/month - NY Post: Sources familiar with the talks say they are still at an early phase, although Apple has been trying to sell the idea to cable and broadcast networks for months. A source familiar with Apple's plans says it is trying to sell broadcasters on a revenue-sharing structure based on usage, meaning it would pay more for popular shows and less for less popular ones. Network sources say the idea offers no support for niche shows.

ANR (34.29): Alpha Natural Resources reports Q3 EPS $0.47 ex-items vs Reuters $0.35: Company reports revenues of $729.2M vs Reuters $758.6M. ANR increased guidance for metallurgical coal shipments in 2010 to a range of 10 to 12M tons, a one million ton increase from the previous guidance range of 9 to 11M tons.

Monday, November 2, 2009

November 2, 2009: Morning Call

November 2, 2009: Morning Call

Fair Value: SP500 – 1033.01; NDX: 1665.66; DOW: 9664.03

Technical Levels:

SPX: 875-880, 910, 953, 986, 1003, 1039-1044 support/1066, 1110 resistance


Pre-market EPS: CLX (.95/1.37B); F (-.13/27.41B); HUM (1.77/7.77B); SYY(.45/9.18B)
04:00: Euro-zone PMI Manufacturing (Oct. Final): 50.7
08:15: HGSI BENLYSTA Pivotal Phase 3 Trial Results
10:00: ISM Manufacturing (Oct): 53.0; Prices Paid: 64.0
10:00: Pending Home Sales (Sep): 0.4% MoM
10:00: Construction Spending (Sep): -0.3%
11:00: F earnings call
11:45: SPWRA presents at Wedbush Clean Technology Conference
15:15: Fed’s Tarullo speaks on executive pay
16:30: STP presents at Wedbush Clean Technology Conference
Post-market EPS: APC (-.34/1.92B); CHK (.65/1.81B); KGC (.12/562.8M); PFG(.65/2.49B); VMC (.38/808M)

Foreign Market Summary/Key Macro News/Commentary:

The S&P and NASDAQ futures are both trading 5 points above fair value at 7:30am ET. The Euro is bouncing against the dollar after trading lower 5 of the previous six sessions. Basic material, energy, and gold stocks are rallying in Europe following a better than expected Chinese PMI report (55.2 vs. 54.7). The Australian dollar is also trading higher on expectations the central bank will raise interest rates tomorrow. European markets are trading modestly higher (up 0.20% to 0.50%) after opening down 0.25% to 0.50%. Strength in commodities and the Euro is offsetting weakness in some financial stocks; RBS is trading down 7% on concerns that the EU will force the bank to sell more assets than previously planned. Asian markets closed lower with the exception of Shanghai, which rallied 3% (Japan down 2.3%, Hong Kong down 0.61%, South Korea down 1.3%). Markets in China bucked the trend lower due to the strong PMI data. HSBC (5.HK) fell on a report the bank’s provisions for bad debts in the US may stay high for the near future, and Hong Kong fell as home sales dropped. Steelmaker, technology, and automobile sectors all took South Korea lower. Most financial and resources stocks led Australia lower. The yen’s strength and a desire to avoid risk took Japan down in advance of tomorrow’s holiday. India was closed for Gurunanak Jayanti.

Research Calls/Market Moving News:

AAPL (188.50): Chinese reception of Apple's iPhone is tepid says the WSJ: There were no signs of the sort of sellout reception that met the launch of the phone in other countries. As of Sunday night, many stores still had the phone in stock. Apple and China Unicom declined to disclose sales figures.

F (7.00): Ford reports Q3 EPS $0.26 ex-items vs Reuters ($0.12): Company reports revenues of $30.90B vs Reuters $27.62B.

RIMM (58.73); PALM (11.61); MOT (8.57): Citi upgrades MOT; downgrades PALM, RIMM: Upgrade: Motorola (MOT) upgraded to buy from hold; target increased to $10.50 from $9. Shares area also added to Top Picks Live List. Downgrade: Palm (PALM) downgraded to sell from hold; target cut to $10 from $19.50. Research In Motion (RIMM) downgraded to sell from hold; target cut to $50 from $100.

TRA (31.77): CF Industries Holdings (CF) offers to acquire Terra Industries for more than $40.50/share: The offer of $32 in cash and 0.1034 of a CF share, including a $7.50 per share dividend declared by Terra, is worth $40.61/share based on CF's 30-Oct closing price

EAC (37.07): Denbury Resources (DNR) to acquire Encore Acquisition (EAC) for $50/share.

CIT (0.72): CIT Group files for bankruptcy; no operating subsidiaries, including Utah bank, will be included in the filings: The company will proceed with the prepackaged plan of reorganization. All operating entities are expected to continue normal operations. The company has filed in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York and expects to reduce total debt by approx $10B.

HGSI (18.69): Human Genome (HGSI), GlaxoSmithKline (GSK.LN) announce positive results in Phase 3 trial of Benlysta (belimumab): The 819-patient BLISS-76 study met its primary efficacy endpoint by achieving a statistically significant improvement in patient response rate vs placebo plus standard of care at Week 52. Study results also showed that the drug was generally well tolerated.

HGSI (18.69): Human Genome fair value estimate raised to $40 from $30 at Leerink: The firm sees probability of approval for Benlysta of 95%, up from 85% previously. Leerink says the drug continues to show a nice response and does not believe the 1mg/kg does will be approved, removing a potential concern that physicians would use the lower dose to save money. Shares reiterated outperform.

HGSI (18.69): Bernstein comments on Human Genome following BLISS 76 interim data: The firm expects controversy about the data as it was not the unconditional success seen in the BLISS 52 trial. Bernstein does believe there is enough for the company to proceed to filing and presumably approval and launch in 2011. Though shares will likely be volatile, the firm believes the overall trend is higher. Shares remain outperform rated with a $32 target.

Barron's latest Big Money Poll is still bullish: Almost 60% are bullish or very bullish with a mean prediction of 10,187 on the Dow by the end of the year and 10,771 by the middle of 2010. They see the S&P ending the year at 1121 and 1190 by the middle of next while the Nasdaq will rise to 2371 by the middle of 2010. But almost 80% see stocks are fairly valued or overvalued today. They see three sectors outperforming in the next 6-12 months: technology, energy and health care. Expected poor performers are financials and consumer cyclicals. Favorite stock: MSFT, ABT, BAC, BRK.A, CVS, GE, GS, LM and QCOM. Most overvalued: AIG, AAPL, GOOG, CAT, AMZN, C, GE, GMCR, VZ and YHOO.

GOOG (536.12): Google seeks profit from YouTube by convincing rights holders to monetize rather than remove their copyrighted content – Guardian: The company is trying to get rights holders to use ContentID, a fingerprinting system that allows them to identify their material even when it has been altered. Rights holders can either block the rest of the world from using their content or put ads alongside it, generating revenue that YouTube takes a small piece of. They can also link to sites that sell DVDs or CDs. Without being more specific, Google says the majority of rights holders are choosing to monetize their content. Roughly 333M of 7B videos streamed per week on YouTube use ContentID.

GS (170.17): Goldman Sachs in talks to buy millions in tax credits from Fannie Mae reports the WSJ: The talks are running into opposition from the Treasury Department which may block any deal. The administration is leery of approving a deal that would allow Goldman to reduce its tax bill even though a deal would bring some respite to Fannie. Goldman is hopeful it will win approval this week. Exact details were not learned but some on Wall Street believe Goldman is seeking to buy $1B in credits.

C (4.09): NY Times wonders if Citi can stand on its own without government help: The government has bailed out the entity now known as Citigroup at least 4 times in the past. CEO Pandit says it is not a troubled bank but they have received a lot of government assistance. The bank hopes to sell off or get rid of the asset management unit, consumer lending and some companies recently acquired. With government help, the financial cushion at the bank has increased significantly. But the bank is not generating the profits to cover the potentially devastating write-downs to come. Says Citi was managed horribly over the last decade and regulators missed the many problems. Generally cautious article.

WSJ notes the large amount of cash on the books of U.S. companies: The cash level on balance sheets is the highest in 40 years. There is more cash and more as a percentage of assets. Nothing particularly new, the large amount of cash on the books of U.S. companies has been frequently mentioned for several months now. In Q2, at the 500 largest nonfinancial firms, there was about $994B in cash and short term investments totaling 9.8% of assets compared to $846B or 7.9% a year before. In Q3, of the 248 of those companies that have reported, cash has increased to 11.1% of assets from 10.1% in Q2. The increase has happened at a diverse selection of companies from Alcoa to Google to PepsiCo to Texas Instruments.