Wednesday, April 8, 2009

What happened to Ben's Green Shoots?

The Fed released the March 17-18 meeting minutes and here is the most important passage: "Participants did not interpret the uptick in housing starts in February as the beginning of a new trend, but some noted that there was only limited scope for housing to fall further. Nonetheless, large inventories of unsold homes relative to sales and the prospect of a continued high level of distressed sales would continue to hold down residential investment in the near term."

Bullish market participants have concluded that the recent data on the housing market suggest THE BOTTOM has been put in. I don't have the slightest clue whether housing has bottomed but remain highly skeptical. Skepticism has been the only way to avoid losing your shirt in this market. At the very least, the Fed minutes may force some of the "housing has bottomed" buyers to second guess their investment thesis.

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